5/9/2006
Kaveh Mahjoob, footballmedia.net

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It is no secret that on paper, Mexico is a superior team to Iran.

Mexico has the FIFA ranking.
Mexico has the superstars like Borgetti, Fonseca and Bravo in offense, Pardo and Perez in midfield, Salcidio and Marquez in defense and one and only Sanchez in the net.
Mexico has passionate fans.
Mexico has a world of experience for this world cup.
Mexico scored most goals in the qualifying rounds than any other teams.

Yes, on paper Mexico should win the match, but; the games are played on the “Field of Green” where dreams are made.

To prepare for this article, 19 Mexican national team matches played over the course of the final stage of 2006 World Cup Qualifying, 2005 Gold Cup and 2005 Confederations Cup have been reviewed. Videos of 10 of matches were watched and analyzed as well as various print and internet based sources have been studied. Throughout this document, these 19 matches are referred to as the “Big 19.”

In this article, we will examine strengths, weaknesses and possible ways to play against the Mexican national team. The intention is not to be naive and think defeating Mexico is easy. In football, being a better team on paper doesn’t guarantee a victory. Additional elements such as players’ physical and emotional factors, coaching strategies and game atmosphere play major roles in the final outcome. As such, learning about an opponent, her behaviors, her sources of power and potential pitfalls could make the Iranian side more prepared and increase the chances of knocking off “the Giant.”

Macro Level – What Mexico Expects of Iran?

Like most world cup favorites who end up playing an Asian or African team, Mexico expects Iran to come and play a very conservative and defensive-minded game. In such scheme, Mexico expects Iran’s offensive strategy would be the use of long crosses for Daei and Hashemain,, counter attacks, individual movements by Karimi and Kia as well as occasional long shots.

Nothing but a victory against Iran would satisfy Mexico and that means the pressure would be on them. If the game goes on with a tie score, “Time” would become Mexico’s greatest enemy and Iran’s best friend. Mexico’s fear would be to finish the first half scoreless. Such scenario would make Mexico desperate and would create cracks in their disciplined game plan.

Defensively, Mexico expects Iran to play with numbers and make it difficult to move the ball around. To combat that, Mexico would likely try to counter Iran’s expected offensive strategy by playing quick touch football. In moving the ball fast all over the field, Mexico would try to have Iranian midfielders and defenders chasing the ball and create holes in their defensive wall. Mexico moves the ball very well in triangles. Once the ball gets to them, it doesn’t take many opportunities for Borgetti or Fonseca to score and that is what Mexican head coach, LaVolpe, would be banking on.

Mexico expects to see Iran play defense with numbers. As such, they will try outside shootings to compliment the fast ball movements. Theoretically, this strategy should create space and opportunity for shots.

When it comes to Iran’s football, the football world still mostly knows Daei, Karimi and Kia. Mexico therefore expects to shut down Karimi by crowding him to reduce his speed and committing fouls. This strategy worked well with Ronaldinho in the Confederation Cup. Furthermore, Mexico would likely have tall (1.82 CM) Rafael Marquez mark Daei and challenge him on high crosses.

Mexico recognizes that Iran has world class midfielders and great forwards. In these departments Iran matches up well with Mexico’s midfield and defense. LaVolpe on the other hand believes that his star-rich offense could take all 3 points away by pushing around the Iranian defense.

Mexican Roster

When LaVolpe announced his provisional roster in late April, everyone was surprised to see Mexican star Blanco missing from the team. While that was a surprise, it was to a certain degree expected as LaVolpe and Blanco have had a turbulent relationship. Furthermore, the Argentinean born Mexican coach has his attacking line figured nicely with Borgetti, Fonseca as the starters and the offensive minded Paval Pardo right behind them.

Table I lists the key Mexican players in the announced “26 provisional members’ squad.” Additionally, the table shows what percentage of the “Big 19” games these players played, who scored and who would be the likely candidates to get carded.

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Mexico on Offense

In an earlier article, we looked at how often Mexico had scored in the three recent major tournaments. Table II below recaps that information.

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Mexico has four strikers in her roster and one could assume that all four would make the team. Against “weaker teams,” Mexico prefers to play with a 4 – 4 – 2 formation with Borgetti as the center forward and Fonseca next to him. Borgetti is lethal on low crosses right at the top of the box but he should also not be left alone on one-on-ones.

In Fonseca, Iran has to expect a quick forward who likes to penetrate mostly through the middle of the box and could be super dangerous in one on ones.

Borgetti, Bravo and Pardo are all dangerous to take long shots and if they do, expect them to aim for the corners with low shots.

Diagram III below shows Mexico’s distribution of offensive plays by side of the field (based on games reviewed).

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Table IV below shows offensive ball movements for Mexico (for the games reviewd).

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When reviewing Diagram III and Table IV, several key observations could be made:

• Expect Mexico to play Iran with the “When Mexico Winning” scenario above. Majority of the offensive starts will be from the wings. Even though in games observed, a good portion of attacks came from Mexico’s left side (attacking Kaebi’s side), Mexico’s right side is of high quality and Iran would need to bring defensive midfielders to assist that side of the defense.

• Expect low crosses toward the top of and right outside of the penalty box where Borgetti and Fonseca would be waiting. In such cases, Borgetti’s tendency is to do one dribble and take a low shot.

• Fonseca loves to penetrate the defense with a style that is reminder of Karimi’s for Iranian fans. He is also a very good finisher. He will go through the middle with give and takes and one-two’s, will try to test the Iranian defense early on by dribbling and if he finds the Iranian side on attack and slow to return, he will be the counter attacker.

Defending Mexico

• Iran has to defend with a well organized plan and with numbers. Mexico’s offensive triangles would have to be broken.

• Brorgetti is the Mexico’s finisher and needs to be defended by a physical defender like Rezai. Frequent small amount of pushing and shoving (not to get carded but enough to annoy Borgetti) should be in order. Borgetti has not been as effective when a physical central defender has shadowed him. I suggest Iran’s coaching staff to pay special attention to the World Cup Qualifying match against the U.S. that was played in the U.S on September 3rd, 2005.

• No space should be given for long shots and quick movements of the ball. Iran’s defense and midfield have to join forces to begin defending from the Mexican half of the field. Mexico likes to build up offensive chances. This is done by a series of quick passes, typically on the ground and movement of triangles. By putting the pressure on them in their half (middle third of the field), Iran would get a chance to build up her defensive organization and slow down their offense. Pressing is the name of the defensive game.

• If Iran enters the 30th minute not having allowed a goal, Mexico would be frustrated and would start to take chances. Deliberate ball movements could turn into faster ball movements and quick long passes for Mexico to create space.

• If Iran enters the second half with a tie, Mexico would go all out to unlock Iran’s defense and score a winning goal. At such point, they would be hurried, lose their concentration and counter attack opportunities would become abundance for Iran.

• On crosses, Iran would need to watch out for quick long shots from behind the box. This could be especially true when the crosses are not defended completely and balls are sent or headed back out of the box by the Iranian defense (in the 25 meter range of Iran’s goal).

• On dead balls, Mexico is very dangerous. As much as possible, Iran should avoid allowing free kicks behind the box (if you need to foul, do so closer to the midfield) but if Mexicans were given those opportunities, watch out for low curving shots for the corners.

• Mexico likes to jam the midfield. This usually frustrates the other side, forces them to commit silly fouls and causes yellow cards, but moreover, it tends to disrupt opposition’s discipline. Again, committing low risk strategic fouls could be a part of any reasonable defensive strategy.

Mexico on Defense

Defensively Mexico is lead by Barcelona strong defender, Rafael Marquez. As one of the few European based players of Mexico, Marquez has the height, speed and experience to control the defense and Iranian strikers.

In the “Big 19” matches, Mexico allowed 19 goals. That is an average of 1 goal a match which indicates that it is possible to score against Mexico. Some interesting highlights of Mexico’s defense include:

• Despite playing tough teams like Brazil, Argentina, USA (twice), Greece and Japan, in only one match Mexico allowed more than 2 goals and that was against Germany in the Confederation matches.

• In 8 matches, Mexico managed to allow no goals.

• In 13 of the 19 matches, opposition scored 1 or no goals.

• A typical Mexican victory is by 1 goal; a 1 – 0 or 2 – 1.

Diagram V below shows, how Mexico’s opposition played against them in games that were studied for this article.

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Table VI below shows opposition ball movements against Mexico.

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A few trends that could be observed from the above diagram and table as well as games studied are:

• Teams that have ended up with better results against Mexico did so by attacking more in the air. The average height of Mexican defenders is 5’10’’ – 5’11”. With Daei and Hashemian, Iran has tall strikers and against a shorter defender, playing in the air and high crosses does have merit.

• When Mexico lost, in the games studied, most of the attacks (39%) by the opposition came from the right side of their offense (left side of Mexico’s defense). For Iran, that translates to Kaebi/Kia combo.

• Teams that tried to penetrate Mexico through the middle have had losing records. Interestingly, when opposition lost to Mexico, they had the highest percentage of attacks from the middle of the field (35%).

Attacking Mexico

• When Mexico faced speedy teams like South Korea, Mexico couldn’t keep up with the pace of the opposition. Fast ball movements and changing the directions of the ball from the left to the right side of the field, caused confusion and opened opportunities for finishers to show their skills. Speed is a main weapon for success against Mexico.

• Mexican defense could get careless around the box and is also vulnerable to highly skilled players. This is one day that Karimi should try his dribbling skills on a moderate basis. Karimi has the potential to attract defenders toward him and act as a playmaker for other offensive players.

• Mexican defenders crowd the penalty box area with numbers and as a result, create open space outside of the box for long range shots. Iranians should take advantage of the space whenever they can and test out Sanchez without hesitation.

• While statistics don’t tell the whole story, planned high crosses on dead balls (corner kicks and free kicks), fast attacks from the wings and low long shot attempts should be in order for the Iranian side.

Last Words

In a recent interview, Iran’s head coach, Branko Ivankovich, said that he believed the first match against Mexico would be the most important one. World Cup history suggests that many surprises have been made in that first match of the group stage (see article).

Iran can surprise Mexico. Iran should play with her strength, control the midfield, fast attacks from the right side, crowd the midfield and put the pressure on Mexico.

This writer doesn’t pretend that Mexico is easy to figure out, easy to overtake or for that matter this writer has figured it all out. I do however believe when Iran’s 11 enter the field on June 11th, all the world rankings should be left out on the world ranking table. Histories made are based on the past performance, rankings are to be challenged and records are made to be broken.

Iran will have her chances to make history at “Frankenstadion Stadium” in the city of Nuremberg, in front of some 32,000 screaming fans.

It is possible to earn points in the match against Mexico. This is not simply a wish of a naïve mind dreaming. It is the belief that Mexico is not as invincible that some may think or would like us to believe and Iranian side is better than some give her credit.