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March 11, 2006

Do friendly results really matter?

3/11/2006
FIFAworldcup.com

Just how important are the friendly games leading up to a FIFA World Cupâ„¢ tournament? FIFAworldcup.com has been looking into this question by reviewing the warm-up games played by the various world champions since Mexico 1970. And while for some teams their preparatory programmes provided accurate indicators of imminent success, for others, they offered few hints of future exploits.

At Mexico 1970, the great Pele's Brazil went through all their warm-up games unbeaten. Their four wins, including a 2-1 success against Argentina, and one draw amounted to an impressive portent of things to come, while the ten goals scored can now be seen as the first fruits of the attacking feast that was to be enjoyed in the final phase.

By contrast, their unfortunate opponents in the final, Italy, arrived at the tournament with just two games under their belt, a 2-2 draw with Spain and a narrow 2-1 win over Portugal. But it is fair to say that the Azzurri have never really been aficionados of the friendly game, tending instead to find their motivation when the stakes are high.

Four years later on home soil, Germany shook off the unconvincing form of their preparatory matches against Spain (0-1) and Italy (1-1) to win their first three group games against Scotland (2-1), Hungary (5-0) and Sweden (2-0). Conversely, the Netherlands team they would meet in the Final reported present after two modest draws, against Austria (1-1) and Romania (0-0). It was only during the course of the tournament that Johan Cruyff and his team-mates really began to gel.

At Argentina 1978, where they reached their second consecutive Final, the Netherlands arrived on the back of three friendly wins, over Israel, Tunisia and Austria. Argentina, meanwhile, had prepared meticulously for 'their' event with no less than six friendly games, primarily against South American opposition. The future world champions recorded two wins and a defeat against Uruguay, beat Peru twice (2-1 and 3-1) and comfortably passed a European test in the shape of Bulgaria (3-1).

Italians 'like headless chickens'

For once, Italy did not figure among the main favourites on their arrival in Spain in 1982, having suffered a pair of friendly losses against France (0-2) and East Germany (0-1) and drawn with Switzerland (1-1). These results made the Azzurri no-hopers in many observers' eyes, as shown by a poll conducted in 19 countries that gave the Italians just a one per cent chance of lifting the crown, the same ratio given Chile and Peru.

Italy captain Dino Zoff holds aloft the FIFA World Cup in 1982. Copyright: AFP

Claudio Gentile, the joker in that Italy squad, even promised: "If we win the World Cup, I'll shave my moustache off." The president of the Italian Football Federation, Federico Sordillo, for his part, was not mincing his words after a warm-up defeat against a Portuguese club side. "We played like headless chickens," he said. As for Italy's opponents in the Final, West Germany, their generally solid record of a 1-1 draw against Argentina and a trio of wins over Portugal (3-1), Czechoslovakia (2-1) and Norway (4-2), was only marginally marred by a 1-0 defeat by Brazil.

Four years later at Mexico 86, West Germany returned with brimming reserves of confidence acquired in preparation. Their impressive record comprised a close-run defeat by Italy (2-1), victories over Brazil (2-0), Switzerland (1-0) and the Netherlands (3-1), and a draw with Yugoslavia (1-1). But once again, the Mannschaft came unstuck in the Final, this time against an Argentina side that had shown decidedly patchy form before the tournament. Diego Maradona and Co had fallen to defeats against France (0-2) and Norway (0-1), while thrashing Israel 7-1.

In the build-up to their rematch in the Final at Italia 90, the Germans and Argentines both presented barely adequate warm-up records. The South Americans managed just one victory, (1-0 against Scotland) in their five pre-tournament games, which included an unwanted hat-trick of draws against Guatemala, Austria and Switzerland and a 2-0 defeat by Mexico. Most disturbingly, they found the back of the net just three times in these games.

Having clearly learned the lessons of their previous two failures, Germany opted for a low-key preparatory programme in which they claimed a brace of 1-0 victories over Czechoslovakia and Denmark, lost 2-1 to France and drew 3-3 with Uruguay. Somewhat paradoxically, Germany actually won the world title in the year that their preparations were the least accomplished.

At USA 94, there were no surprises for once, as Brazil enjoyed an almost flawless programme of preparation that included four victories, the most significant of which came against Argentina (2-0). The only slight question mark was raised by their surprising 1-1 draw with Canada.

Italy, meanwhile, arrived in the United States having scored just five goals in five friendlies comprising a pair of defeats against France (1-0) and Germany (2-1) and victories over Finland (2-0), Switzerland (1-0) and Costa Rica (1-0). They were no doubt hoping to repeat their unexpected success of 1982 but despite Roberto Baggio's successful emulation of the Paolo Rossi technique of only starting to score in the second round, the Azzurri fell at the final hurdle.

France captain Didier Deschamps takes the ball away from Brazil's Ronaldo during the FIFA World Cup Final in 1998. Copyright: AFP

In 1998, hosts France were far from favourites going into the tournament. Their preparatory campaign had driven the whole nation to distraction, as Les Bleus netted just eight times in seven games while grinding out 1-0 wins against Spain, Belgium and Finland, recording draws against Norway (3-3), Sweden (0-0) and Morocco (2-2) and falling to a 1-0 defeat by Russia.

In the wake of their eventual triumph, captain Didier Deschamps shed some light on this mixed form. "We just weren't really up for it in the friendly games. They don't really interest us, but we've proved that in the big games, we are stronger than most." The team they beat in the Final, Brazil, had gone to France as favourites after a series of friendlies that produced a defeat by Argentina (1-0) and successes against Germany (2-1) and Andorra (3-0).

In 2002, the Seleção arrived in the Far East in a position of strength. Despite an unusually shaky qualifying campaign, their friendly matches had hinted at what was to come: 19 goals in six games, comprising four wins over Bolivia (6-0), Iceland (6-1), Yugoslavia (1-0) and Malaysia (4-0) and a 1-1 draw with Portugal. A confident Luiz Felipe Scolari said two months before the event: "I don't have many doubts about my side. I'm not worried about either the defence or the attack."

The team they beat in the Final, Germany, had qualified via the play-offs and endured a mixed preparation programme. While their three victories were convincing ones – they beat Israel 7-1, Kuwait 7-0 and Austria 6-2 – the general enthusiasm was dampened by a pair of defeats. Losing to Argentina could be regarded as acceptable, but being beaten by Wales was not so good.

Thirty-two years on from their FIFA World Cup triumph on home soil, Germany have been restricted to playing friendlies as they prepare to host the tournament again. The recent painful lesson delivered by Italy – who beat Jurgen Klinsmann's team 4-1 in Florence – has caused much soul-searching in the media, but Germans can take consolation from the fact that they are not the only global giants to be showing signs of weakness: just consider Argentina and France.

And in any case, history has proved that the picture painted in friendly games is rarely reproduced in official FIFA World Cup matches. With the possible exception of the Brazilian grand masters.

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